Vodafone Ratu Cakobau Park · Analysis updated 10:31 UTC
Rewa vs Nasinu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for Rewa and 1.25 for Nasinu, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives Rewa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rewa win
68.4% probability
Expected goals
2.73 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rewa home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nasinu away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rewa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.73 goals for Rewa and 1.25 for Nasinu, a combined 3.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–16.4%
- 3–06.3%
Recent form
Rewa
- 2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Toti City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Tupapa Maraerenga · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · A vs ABM Galaxy · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasinu · 2-0 (W)
Nasinu
- 2025-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Rewa · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tavua · 5-2 (W)
- 2025-08-30T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Nadroga · 6-3 (W)
- 2025-08-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Suva · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Nadi · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Football League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rewa win, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.