Govind Park · Analysis updated 10:33 UTC
Rewa vs Toti City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Rewa and 2.75 for Toti City, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Toti City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Toti City win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rewa home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toti City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 32% / 18% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Rewa and 2.75 for Toti City, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 87% and both teams to score at 84%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.4%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–25.7%
- 1–35.3%
- 3–24.8%
Recent form
Rewa
- 2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Toti City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Tupapa Maraerenga · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · A vs ABM Galaxy · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasinu · 2-0 (W)
Toti City
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
OFC Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | ABM Galaxy | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 |
| 3 | Central Coast | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Tupapa Maraerenga | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | Rewa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Vaivase-Tai | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Toti City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Tiga Sport | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Pago | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Nukuhetulu | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | Vénus | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toti City win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.