Govind Park · Analysis updated 03:02 UTC
Rewa vs Tupapa Maraerenga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rewa and 3.00 for Tupapa Maraerenga, a combined total of 4.33. That distribution gives Tupapa Maraerenga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tupapa Maraerenga win
71.2% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rewa home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tupapa Maraerenga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 14% / 15% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Rewa and 3.00 for Tupapa Maraerenga, a combined 4.33 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.9%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–26.0%
- 0–36.0%
- 1–45.9%
Recent form
Rewa
- 2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Toti City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Tupapa Maraerenga · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · A vs ABM Galaxy · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasinu · 2-0 (W)
Tupapa Maraerenga
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tupapa Maraerenga win, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.