Belle Vue · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Rhyl vs Bala Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Rhyl and 1.67 for Bala Town, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Bala Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rhyl home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bala Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–26.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Double chance — Home/Draw at 1.67 (model 57.7% vs market 54.3%, edge +3.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/DrawValue | 1.67 | 54.3% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +3.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.6% | 23.5% | 4.26 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.53 | 60.9% | 60.9% | 1.64 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.38 | 39.1% | 39.1% | 2.56 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 34.5% | 34.2% | 2.92 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.10 | 43.0% | 42.3% | 2.36 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 77.5% | 76.5% | 1.31 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 68.2% | 65.8% | 1.52 | -2.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rhyl
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Gresford Athletic · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Buckley Town · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bangor City 1876 FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Denbigh Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bala Town · 1-3 (L)
Bala Town
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Buckley Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Caersws · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Mold Alexandra · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Penrhyncoch · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Denbigh Town · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · Rhyl 1-3 Bala Town (FAW Championship)
- 2016-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · Rhyl 2-0 Bala Town (Premier League)
- 2016-12-26T14:30:00.000Z · Rhyl 1-6 Bala Town (Premier League)
- 2016-01-01T14:30:00.000Z · Rhyl 0-0 Bala Town (Premier League)
- 2015-12-29T19:45:00.000Z · Rhyl 1-3 Bala Town (Premier League)
- 2014-11-01T14:30:00.000Z · Rhyl 0-1 Bala Town (Premier League)
- 2014-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · Rhyl 2-1 Bala Town (Premier League)
- 2014-01-04T14:30:00.000Z · Rhyl 2-4 Bala Town (Premier League)
- 2013-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · Rhyl 1-0 Bala Town (Premier League)
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 2 |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.