Estádio Municipal da Ribeira Brava · Analysis updated 17:49 UTC
Ribeira Brava vs Vianense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Ribeira Brava and 1.95 for Vianense, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives Vianense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vianense win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ribeira Brava home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vianense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vianense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 20% / 22% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Ribeira Brava and 1.95 for Vianense, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Ribeira Brava
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Machico · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brito · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AR São Martinho · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brito · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Limianos · 0-3 (L)
Vianense
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paredes · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela Calheta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacos Ferreira · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chaves II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | SC Braga B | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Limianos | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Bragança | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Tirsense | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Montalegre | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Vila Meã | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Celoricense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Rebordosa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Ponte da Barca | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Maria da Fonte | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 | Brito | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Maia Lidador | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vianense win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.