Princess Magogo Stadium · Referee Christopher Kistoor, South Africa · Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Richards Bay vs Amazulu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Richards Bay and 1.63 for Amazulu, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Richards Bay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Richards Bay home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Amazulu away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Richards Bay
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sekhukhune United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Milford FC · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Amazulu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kaizer Chiefs · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 1-1 (D)
Amazulu
- 2026-10-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Polokwane City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marumo Gallants · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Richards Bay · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · Richards Bay 1-2 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2026-03-14T16:00:00.000Z · Richards Bay 1-2 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2026-02-20T17:00:00.000Z · Richards Bay 0-1 Amazulu (Cup)
- 2025-11-28T17:30:00.000Z · Richards Bay 2-0 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2025-04-04T17:30:00.000Z · Richards Bay 0-1 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2024-11-30T13:30:00.000Z · Richards Bay 1-3 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2024-04-30T17:30:00.000Z · Richards Bay 2-1 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2023-08-19T15:30:00.000Z · Richards Bay 0-0 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2023-01-29T13:30:00.000Z · Richards Bay 1-1 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2022-10-05T15:00:00.000Z · Richards Bay 1-0 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Milford FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Kaizer Chiefs | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Chippa United | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Durban City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Polokwane City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kruger United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | TS Galaxy | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Siwelele | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Richards Bay | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.