· Analysis updated 08:36 UTC
Richmond United W vs Mamelodi Sundowns W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.76 expected goals for Richmond United W and 3.37 for Mamelodi Sundowns W, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Mamelodi Sundowns W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mamelodi Sundowns W win
85.8% probability
Expected goals
0.76 – 3.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Richmond United W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mamelodi Sundowns W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 5% / 9% / 86% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.76 goals for Richmond United W and 3.37 for Mamelodi Sundowns W, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 77% and both teams to score at 51%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
14%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–310.3%
- 0–29.2%
- 0–48.7%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Richmond United W
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TS Galaxy W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Mamelodi Sundowns W · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-09-20T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Diepkloof W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Copperbelt Ladies W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs UWC W · 0-3 (L)
Mamelodi Sundowns W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns W | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 15 |
| 2 | JVW FC W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 3 | TS Galaxy W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | University of Johannesburg W | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Tshwane University W | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Pretoria U. W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Ramatlaohle W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | UWC W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | Copperbelt Ladies W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | University of Fort Hare W | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Richmond United W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Ezemvelo W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 13 | First Touch W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Diepkloof W | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 15 | Stellenbosch W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
| 16 | City Lads W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mamelodi Sundowns W win, at 85.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.