Ried II vs SV Lafnitz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Ried II and 2.19 for SV Lafnitz, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives SV Lafnitz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SV Lafnitz win

47.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 2.19

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ried II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Lafnitz away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SV Lafnitz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 32% / 20% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Ried II and 2.19 for SV Lafnitz, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ried II win32%

Draw20%

SV Lafnitz win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

1–28.1%
1–17.4%
2–27.2%
2–16.5%
1–35.9%

Recent form

Ried II

2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pinzgau Saalfelden · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuchl · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs LASK Juniors · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grödig · 2-1 (W)

SV Lafnitz

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tillmitsch · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartberg (Am) · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiz · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Allerheiligen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Mitte table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Voitsberg	30	26	2	2	92	80
2	Gurten	30	20	4	6	31	64
3	Oedt	30	15	10	5	30	55
4	LASK Juniors	30	15	6	9	22	51
5	Deutschlandsberger SC	30	14	9	7	8	51
6	Kalsdorf	30	15	4	11	6	49
7	Velden	30	13	7	10	3	46
8	SV Lafnitz	30	12	6	12	-5	42
9	Wallern / Marienkirchen	30	12	4	14	-7	40
10	Weiz	30	10	9	11	-5	39
11	Wolfsberger AC II	30	9	7	14	-1	34
12	Wohnbau Dietach	30	9	5	16	-24	32
13	Gleisdorf 09	30	7	9	14	-29	30
14	Treibach	30	7	3	20	-36	24
15	Ried II	30	7	4	19	-31	25
16	St. Anna	30	2	5	23	-54	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SV Lafnitz win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.