· Analysis updated 11:58 UTC
Ried II vs Wallern / Marienkirchen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ried II and 2.18 for Wallern / Marienkirchen, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Wallern / Marienkirchen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wallern / Marienkirchen win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ried II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wallern / Marienkirchen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 23% / 20% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Ried II and 2.18 for Wallern / Marienkirchen, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–27.0%
- 1–36.8%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Ried II
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pinzgau Saalfelden · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuchl · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs LASK Juniors · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grödig · 2-1 (W)
Wallern / Marienkirchen
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Leonfelden · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bad Schallerbach · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UFC Hallein · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gurten · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried II · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Ried II 2-0 Wallern / Marienkirchen (Regionalliga - Mitte)
- 2025-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · Ried II 3-3 Wallern / Marienkirchen (Regionalliga - Mitte)
- 2025-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Ried II 3-0 Wallern / Marienkirchen (Regionalliga - Mitte)
- 2024-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · Ried II 0-4 Wallern / Marienkirchen (Regionalliga - Mitte)
- 2024-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · Ried II 1-0 Wallern / Marienkirchen (Regionalliga - Mitte)
- 2023-10-28T13:30:00.000Z · Ried II 0-3 Wallern / Marienkirchen (Regionalliga - Mitte)
Regionalliga - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallern / Marienkirchen | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | LASK Juniors | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 24 |
| 3 | Gurten | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Wals-Grünau | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 5 | Kuchl | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Bad Schallerbach | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | SK Vorwarts Steyr | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Leonfelden | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | Grödig | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | TSV St. Johann | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Ried II | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 12 | Seekirchen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 13 | UFC Hallein | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Wohnbau Dietach | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -19 | 9 |
| 15 | Pinzgau Saalfelden | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -16 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wallern / Marienkirchen win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.