Josko Arena · Referee Daniel Pfister, Austria · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Ried vs Grazer AK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Ried and 1.42 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives Ried the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ried win
67.3% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ried home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Grazer AK away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ried to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 16% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for Ried and 1.42 for Grazer AK, a combined 4.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–25.7%
- 2–05.6%
- 1–15.6%
Recent form
Ried
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Wolfsberger AC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 1-0 (W)
Grazer AK
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SCR Altach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitzbühel · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolfsberger AC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ried win, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.