· Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Riga Mariners vs Tukums II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Riga Mariners and 0.93 for Tukums II, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Riga Mariners the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Riga Mariners win
74.8% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Riga Mariners home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tukums II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga Mariners to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Riga Mariners and 0.93 for Tukums II, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–08.7%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Riga Mariners
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Valmiera / BSS · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Smiltene · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rēzekne FA · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga FC II · 3-1 (W)
Tukums II
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs JFK Ventspils · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rēzekne FA · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mārupe · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Leevon / PPK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Skanste · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 76 | 57 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 52 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 52 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 47 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 40 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 32 |
| 7 | Riga FC II | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -3 | 29 |
| 8 | Skanste | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -1 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -27 | 19 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -34 | 18 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -24 | 15 |
| 13 | Rīgas FS II | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -29 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -52 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Riga Mariners win, at 74.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.