Riga vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Riga and 1.10 for BFC Daugavpils, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Riga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Riga win

60.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Riga home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
BFC Daugavpils away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Riga win61%

Draw20%

BFC Daugavpils win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.3%
2–09.0%
1–08.4%
3–17.0%

Recent form

Riga

2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FS Jelgava · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Auda · 2-2 (D)

BFC Daugavpils

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ogre United · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Liepaja · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Auda · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · Riga 1-1 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
2026-06-25T15:00:00.000Z · Riga 0-0 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
2026-05-08T14:30:00.000Z · Riga 3-1 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
2026-03-14T14:00:00.000Z · Riga 4-2 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
2025-09-29T15:00:00.000Z · Riga 1-0 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
2025-07-06T16:00:00.000Z · Riga 1-1 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
2025-05-14T14:30:00.000Z · Riga 1-0 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
2025-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · Riga 1-2 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
2024-10-19T10:00:00.000Z · Riga 5-0 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
2024-07-28T15:00:00.000Z · Riga 1-0 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)

Virsliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	30	23	5	2	49	74
2	Riga	31	22	7	2	56	73
3	Auda	31	18	7	6	19	61
4	FK Liepaja	31	12	7	12	-2	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	10	9	12	0	39
6	Super Nova	30	10	5	15	-11	35
7	FS Jelgava	31	8	8	15	-17	32
8	Grobiņa	31	5	11	15	-31	26
9	Tukums	31	5	9	17	-17	24
10	Ogre United	31	4	6	21	-46	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Riga win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.