Skonto stadions · Analysis updated 13:20 UTC
Riga vs Metta / LU Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Riga and 3.68 for Metta / LU, a combined total of 5.32. That distribution gives Metta / LU the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Metta / LU win
74.3% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 3.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Riga home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Metta / LU away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.6%
- 1–46.1%
- 2–35.5%
- 1–25.4%
- 2–45.0%
Recent form
Riga
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FS Jelgava · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Auda · 2-2 (D)
Metta / LU
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JDFS Alberts · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs JFK Ventspils · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Valmiera / BSS · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Smiltene · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rēzekne FA · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · Riga 4-1 Metta / LU (Cup)
- 2025-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · Riga 1-0 Metta / LU (Virsliga)
- 2025-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · Riga 3-2 Metta / LU (Virsliga)
- 2025-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · Riga 3-0 Metta / LU (Virsliga)
- 2025-04-08T16:00:00.000Z · Riga 1-1 Metta / LU (Virsliga)
- 2024-11-03T11:00:00.000Z · Riga 4-0 Metta / LU (Virsliga)
- 2024-08-10T13:00:00.000Z · Riga 4-2 Metta / LU (Virsliga)
- 2024-06-02T17:00:00.000Z · Riga 5-0 Metta / LU (Virsliga)
- 2024-04-21T11:00:00.000Z · Riga 2-1 Metta / LU (Virsliga)
- 2024-03-03T13:00:00.000Z · Riga 1-1 Metta / LU (Friendlies Clubs)
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | Riga | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Riga Mariners | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 7 |
| 4 | Auda | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Spēks | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Leevon / PPK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Valmiera / BSS | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Mārupe | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Rīgas FS | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | BFC Daugavpils | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | JDFS Alberts | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Aliance | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Salaspils | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Smiltene | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | JFK Ventspils | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Ogre United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Grobiņa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Super Nova | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Ķekava / Auda | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 20 | JFC Jelgava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Rēzekne FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Tukums | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | FK Liepaja | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | DSVK Traktors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | FS Jelgava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Skanste | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Upesciema Warriors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Parks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 29 | Valka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 30 | Saldus NSS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Iecava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Lielupe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 33 | Union / Daugava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 34 | RFK/RFS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Metta / LU win, at 74.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.