Riga vs Ogre United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Riga and 0.80 for Ogre United, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Riga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Riga win

78.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.75 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Riga home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ogre United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 14% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Riga and 0.80 for Ogre United, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Riga win78%

Draw14%

Ogre United win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

22%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

2–010.9%
3–010.0%
2–18.7%
3–18.0%
1–07.9%

Recent form

Riga

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Pafos · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Kairat Almaty · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-1 (W)

Ogre United

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Daugavpils · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Auda · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Liepaja · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Virsliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	33	26	5	2	57	83
2	Riga	33	24	7	2	59	79
3	Auda	33	19	7	7	19	64
4	FK Liepaja	33	13	7	13	0	46
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	12	9	12	2	45
6	Super Nova	33	11	5	17	-15	38
7	FS Jelgava	33	8	8	17	-22	32
8	Grobiņa	33	6	11	16	-31	29
9	Tukums	33	5	9	19	-21	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	-48	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Riga win, at 78.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.