Riga vs Rīgas FS Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Riga and 1.38 for Rīgas FS, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Riga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Riga home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rīgas FS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Riga and 1.38 for Rīgas FS, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Riga win39%

Draw25%

Rīgas FS win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–08.6%
2–18.6%
0–18.2%
1–28.1%

Recent form

Riga

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Kairat Almaty · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FS Jelgava · 1-0 (W)

Rīgas FS

2026-08-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Jablonec · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Virsliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	33	26	5	2	57	83
2	Riga	33	24	7	2	59	79
3	Auda	33	19	7	7	19	64
4	FK Liepaja	33	13	7	13	0	46
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	12	9	12	2	45
6	Super Nova	33	11	5	17	-15	38
7	FS Jelgava	33	8	8	17	-22	32
8	Grobiņa	33	6	11	16	-31	29
9	Tukums	33	5	9	19	-21	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	-48	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.