Riga vs Tukums Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Riga and 0.95 for Tukums, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Riga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Riga win

71.9% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.55 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Riga home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Tukums away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.55 goals for Riga and 0.95 for Tukums, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Riga win72%

Draw16%

Tukums win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.8%
2–19.3%
3–08.3%
3–17.9%
1–07.7%

Recent form

Riga

2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FS Jelgava · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Auda · 2-2 (D)

Tukums

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ogre United · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FS Jelgava · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Auda · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Virsliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	32	25	5	2	55	80
2	Riga	32	23	7	2	58	76
3	Auda	32	19	7	6	20	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	12	7	13	-3	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	1	42
6	Super Nova	32	11	5	16	-14	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	8	8	16	-19	32
8	Grobiņa	32	5	11	16	-32	26
9	Tukums	32	5	9	18	-19	24
10	Ogre United	32	4	6	22	-47	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Riga win, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.