Riga vs Vardar Skopje Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Riga and 2.00 for Vardar Skopje, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Riga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Riga win

58.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.00 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Riga home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vardar Skopje away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 17% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Riga and 2.00 for Vardar Skopje, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Riga win58%

Draw17%

Vardar Skopje win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals73%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

2–16.1%
2–26.1%
3–16.1%
3–26.1%
4–14.5%

Recent form

Riga

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Pafos · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Kairat Almaty · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-1 (W)

Vardar Skopje

2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ovce Pole · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · Riga 5-2 Vardar Skopje (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · Riga 3-2 Vardar Skopje (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Riga win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.