Rīgas FS II vs JDFS Alberts Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Rīgas FS II and 2.43 for JDFS Alberts, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives JDFS Alberts the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

JDFS Alberts win

56.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 2.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rīgas FS II home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
JDFS Alberts away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Rīgas FS II win24%

Draw19%

JDFS Alberts win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.5%
1–17.0%
1–36.9%
2–26.7%
2–15.5%

Recent form

Rīgas FS II

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rēzekne FA · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mārupe · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Leevon / PPK · 3-6 (L)
2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skanste · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs JFK Ventspils · 4-1 (W)

JDFS Alberts

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Metta / LU · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Valmiera / BSS · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Smiltene · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mārupe · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS II · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · Rīgas FS II 1-3 JDFS Alberts (1. Liga)
2026-04-19T12:00:00.000Z · Rīgas FS II 0-2 JDFS Alberts (1. Liga)
2025-08-02T10:00:00.000Z · Rīgas FS II 1-2 JDFS Alberts (1. Liga)
2025-04-05T15:00:00.000Z · Rīgas FS II 0-2 JDFS Alberts (1. Liga)
2024-10-06T10:00:00.000Z · Rīgas FS II 0-3 JDFS Alberts (1. Liga)
2024-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · Rīgas FS II 4-0 JDFS Alberts (1. Liga)
2023-10-22T10:00:00.000Z · Rīgas FS II 2-2 JDFS Alberts (1. Liga)
2023-07-02T14:00:00.000Z · Rīgas FS II 1-2 JDFS Alberts (1. Liga)
2022-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · Rīgas FS II 0-1 JDFS Alberts (1. Liga)
2022-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · Rīgas FS II 1-1 JDFS Alberts (1. Liga)

1. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Metta / LU	23	19	3	1	78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	16	5	2	37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	23	16	5	2	22	53
4	Riga Mariners	23	15	5	3	24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	12	5	6	13	41
6	Mārupe	23	10	3	10	3	33
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	-3	30
8	Skanste	23	8	2	13	-2	26
9	Super Nova 2	23	6	8	9	-6	26
10	Smiltene	23	5	5	13	-27	20
11	Tukums II	23	5	4	14	-34	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	5	3	15	-28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	3	7	13	-24	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	1	3	19	-53	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is JDFS Alberts win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.