LNK Sporta Parks · Analysis updated 21:31 UTC
Rīgas FS vs Riga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Rīgas FS and 1.92 for Riga, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Rīgas FS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.6% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rīgas FS home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Riga away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rīgas FS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 21% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Rīgas FS and 1.92 for Riga, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.2%
- 3–15.2%
Recent form
Rīgas FS
- 2026-08-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Jablonec · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 1-0 (W)
Riga
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FS Jelgava · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Auda · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | Riga | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Riga Mariners | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 7 |
| 4 | Auda | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Spēks | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Leevon / PPK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Valmiera / BSS | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Mārupe | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Rīgas FS | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | BFC Daugavpils | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | JDFS Alberts | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Aliance | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Salaspils | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Smiltene | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | JFK Ventspils | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Ogre United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Grobiņa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Super Nova | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Ķekava / Auda | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 20 | JFC Jelgava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Rēzekne FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Tukums | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | FK Liepaja | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | DSVK Traktors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | FS Jelgava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Skanste | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Upesciema Warriors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Parks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 29 | Valka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 30 | Saldus NSS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Iecava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Lielupe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 33 | Union / Daugava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 34 | RFK/RFS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.