LNK Sporta Parks · Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Rīgas FS vs Tukums Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.33 expected goals for Rīgas FS and 0.76 for Tukums, a combined total of 4.09. That distribution gives Rīgas FS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Rīgas FS win
85.3% probability
Expected goals
3.33 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rīgas FS home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tukums away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rīgas FS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 10% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.33 goals for Rīgas FS and 0.76 for Tukums, a combined 4.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
15%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.3%
- 2–09.3%
- 4–08.5%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Rīgas FS
- 2026-08-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Jablonec · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 1-0 (W)
Tukums
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ogre United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FS Jelgava · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Auda · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Virsliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 49 | 74 |
| 2 | Riga | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 56 | 73 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 61 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | -2 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 39 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -11 | 35 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -31 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -17 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -46 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rīgas FS win, at 85.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.