Sportpark Middelmors · Analysis updated 06:46 UTC
Rijnsburgse Boys vs Den Bosch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Rijnsburgse Boys and 1.56 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Rijnsburgse Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Rijnsburgse Boys win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rijnsburgse Boys home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Den Bosch away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rijnsburgse Boys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Rijnsburgse Boys and 1.56 for Den Bosch, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–05.9%
Recent form
Rijnsburgse Boys
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ROHDA Raalte · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kloetinge · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ijsselmeervogels · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Quick Boys · 3-1 (W)
Den Bosch
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Helmond Sport · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong PSV U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rijnsburgse Boys win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.