Sportpark Middelmors · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Rijnsburgse Boys vs RKAV Volendam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Rijnsburgse Boys and 1.80 for RKAV Volendam, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Rijnsburgse Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Rijnsburgse Boys win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rijnsburgse Boys home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
RKAV Volendam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rijnsburgse Boys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 21% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Rijnsburgse Boys and 1.80 for RKAV Volendam, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Rijnsburgse Boys
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ROHDA Raalte · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kloetinge · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ijsselmeervogels · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Quick Boys · 3-1 (W)
RKAV Volendam
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ROHDA Raalte · 8-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Almere City II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Spakenburg · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tweede Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 25 |
| 2 | De Treffers | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Kozakken Boys | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Ijsselmeervogels | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | HHC | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Barendrecht | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | GVVV Veenendaal | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | RKAV Volendam | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | AFC Amsterdam | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Katwijk | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 11 |
| 14 | Almere City II | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Hoek | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Koninklijke HFC | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Kloetinge | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -23 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rijnsburgse Boys win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.