Sportpark Middelmors · Analysis updated 04:16 UTC
Rijnsburgse Boys vs Sparta Rotterdam II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Rijnsburgse Boys and 2.69 for Sparta Rotterdam II, a combined total of 4.79. That distribution gives Sparta Rotterdam II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sparta Rotterdam II win
51.1% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 2.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rijnsburgse Boys home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Rotterdam II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 1–26.3%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–35.7%
- 2–14.9%
Recent form
Rijnsburgse Boys
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs RKAV Volendam · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ROHDA Raalte · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kloetinge · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ijsselmeervogels · 0-3 (L)
Sparta Rotterdam II
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Almere City II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Barendrecht · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoek · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T12:30:00.000Z · Rijnsburgse Boys 3-6 Sparta Rotterdam II (Tweede Divisie)
- 2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · Rijnsburgse Boys 4-2 Sparta Rotterdam II (Tweede Divisie)
- 2025-11-29T14:00:00.000Z · Rijnsburgse Boys 4-2 Sparta Rotterdam II (Tweede Divisie)
- 2025-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · Rijnsburgse Boys 3-2 Sparta Rotterdam II (Tweede Divisie)
- 2024-11-16T14:00:00.000Z · Rijnsburgse Boys 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam II (Tweede Divisie)
- 2024-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Rijnsburgse Boys 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam II (Tweede Divisie)
- 2023-10-07T13:30:00.000Z · Rijnsburgse Boys 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam II (Tweede Divisie)
- 2023-04-15T15:00:00.000Z · Rijnsburgse Boys 3-0 Sparta Rotterdam II (Tweede Divisie)
- 2022-10-29T13:00:00.000Z · Rijnsburgse Boys 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam II (Tweede Divisie)
- 2022-05-28T13:30:00.000Z · Rijnsburgse Boys 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam II (Tweede Divisie)
Tweede Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | De Treffers | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Ijsselmeervogels | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Kozakken Boys | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | HHC | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Barendrecht | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | GVVV Veenendaal | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | RKAV Volendam | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Katwijk | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | Almere City II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | AFC Amsterdam | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 13 |
| 15 | Hoek | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Koninklijke HFC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 | Kloetinge | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -24 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Rotterdam II win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.