Rilindja 1974 vs Ferizaj Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Rilindja 1974 and 1.08 for Ferizaj, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Ferizaj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.02 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rilindja 1974 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ferizaj away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ferizaj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 34% / 30% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Rilindja 1974 and 1.08 for Ferizaj, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Rilindja 1974 win34%

Draw30%

Ferizaj win37%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–113.5%
0–113.2%
1–012.5%
0–012.3%
1–27.3%

Recent form

Rilindja 1974

2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Suhareka · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vëllaznimi · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tefik Canga · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Istogu · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KF Lepenci · 2-0 (W)

Ferizaj

2026-08-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Trepça'89 · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rilindja 1974 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Liria Prizren · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Llapi · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Drenica Skënderaj · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga E Pare table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Prishtina e Re	12	8	1	3	9	25
2	Liria Prizren	10	7	2	1	10	23
3	Rilindja 1974	11	6	3	2	7	21
4	Trepça'89	11	5	5	1	6	20
5	Ferizaj	11	5	4	2	10	19
6	Dinamo Ferizaj	11	5	4	2	8	19
7	Vëllaznimi	12	5	2	5	-4	17
8	Suhareka	11	4	4	3	5	16
9	Istogu	11	5	1	5	-4	16
10	2 Korriku	11	4	3	4	0	15
11	Vjosa	11	3	5	3	4	14
12	FC Besa Peja	11	3	3	5	-2	12
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	11	3	2	6	-10	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	12	1	6	5	-6	9
15	KF Lepenci	11	1	6	4	-6	9
16	Kika	11	1	6	4	-9	9
17	Tefik Canga	12	1	4	7	-8	7
18	Mitrovica	10	0	5	5	-10	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.