Stadion Iskar · Analysis updated 14:15 UTC
Rilski Sportist vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Rilski Sportist and 0.62 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives Rilski Sportist the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
77.7% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rilski Sportist home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rilski Sportist to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 34% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Rilski Sportist and 0.62 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, a combined 1.63 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.7%
- 0–019.7%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–09.9%
Recent form
Rilski Sportist
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marek · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yantra 2019 · 2-0 (W)
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marek · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra 2019 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nesebar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportist Svoge · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dobrudzha · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Vihren | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Rilski Sportist | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Yantra 2019 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Beroe | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | Marek | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 15 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.