· Analysis updated 18:11 UTC
Riltzi vs Aksakovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Riltzi and 2.05 for Aksakovo, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Riltzi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.8% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Riltzi home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aksakovo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riltzi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 20% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Riltzi and 2.05 for Aksakovo, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–26.6%
- 1–16.4%
- 3–25.3%
Recent form
Riltzi
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cherno more II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets III · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Dragoevo · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ustrem Donchevo · 4-1 (W)
Aksakovo
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Varna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Cherno more II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 28 |
| 2 | Volov Shumen | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Chernolomets 1919 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Botev Novi Pazar | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cherno more II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 9 | Benkovski Isperih | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Olympic Varna | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Devnya 2005 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Riltzi | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Ustrem Donchevo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 16 | Fratria II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.