· Analysis updated 21:45 UTC
Rio Ave U19 vs Vizela U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Rio Ave U19 and 0.94 for Vizela U19, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Rio Ave U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rio Ave U19 win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio Ave U19 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vizela U19 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rio Ave U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Rio Ave U19 and 0.94 for Vizela U19, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 50.7% vs market 43.5%, edge +7.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 43.5% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +7.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.4% | 45.7% | 2.19 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.0% | 21.3% | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 24.5% | 24.4% | 4.10 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 54.5% | 54.3% | 1.84 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.1% | 78.7% | 1.27 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.5% | 75.6% | 1.32 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 49.3% | 2.03 | -7.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rio Ave U19
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Braga U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicão U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Porto U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense U19 · 0-1 (L)
Vizela U19
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicão U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Feirense U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu U19 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gil Vicente U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Braga U19 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Júniores U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Guimaraes U19 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 1 | Benfica U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Porto U19 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Sporting CP U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 3 | Santa Clara U19 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Rio Ave U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Torreense U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu U19 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Oriental U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Casa Pia U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Feirense U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Mafra U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Famalicão U19 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Farense U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | Moreirense U19 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | União Leiria U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
| 10 | Vizela U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rio Ave U19 win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.