· Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
Rio Ave W vs Sporting Braga W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Rio Ave W and 1.38 for Sporting Braga W, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Sporting Braga W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sporting Braga W win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio Ave W home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Braga W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Braga W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 19% / 28% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Rio Ave W and 1.38 for Sporting Braga W, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.3%
- 0–012.5%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–08.7%
Recent form
Rio Ave W
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Valadares Gaia W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SL Benfica W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Torreense W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gil Vicente W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gil Vicente W · 1-1 (D)
Sporting Braga W
- 2026-05-10T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria Guimaraes W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Power W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SL Benfica W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave W · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisão - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Torreense W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 12 |
| 2 | SL Benfica W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| 3 | Sporting CP W | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Valadares Gaia W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Sporting Braga W | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Porto W | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Racing Power W | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Rio Ave W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 10 | Marítimo W | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -24 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Braga W win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.