· Analysis updated 06:23 UTC
Rio Branco ES vs Rio Branco-VN Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Rio Branco ES and 0.83 for Rio Branco-VN, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Rio Branco ES the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.7% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio Branco ES home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rio Branco-VN away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.0%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Rio Branco ES
- 2026-06-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uberlandia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-21T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Uberlandia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-14T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Porto BA · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Serra Talhada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Audax São Mateus · 4-0 (W)
Rio Branco-VN
- 2026-07-01T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Porto Vitória · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Porto Vitória · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Brasil ES · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-23T22:00:00.000Z · Rio Branco ES 3-0 Rio Branco-VN (Copa Espírito Santo)
- 2026-02-12T23:00:00.000Z · Rio Branco ES 2-2 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2025-04-22T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Branco ES 4-1 Rio Branco-VN (Copa Espírito Santo)
- 2025-02-02T18:45:00.000Z · Rio Branco ES 0-0 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2024-04-13T20:00:00.000Z · Rio Branco ES 0-1 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2024-04-07T19:00:00.000Z · Rio Branco ES 2-1 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2024-02-03T19:00:00.000Z · Rio Branco ES 1-0 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2022-03-05T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Branco ES 3-2 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2021-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Branco ES 0-3 Rio Branco-VN (Serie D)
- 2021-07-04T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Branco ES 0-0 Rio Branco-VN (Serie D)
Copa Espírito Santo table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto Vitória | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Vitória ES | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Vilavelhense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Branco-VN | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Rio Branco ES | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Sport Brasil ES | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 7 | Serra Talhada | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 8 | Audax São Mateus | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.