· Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Rio Branco SP vs Marília Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Rio Branco SP and 1.25 for Marília, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Marília the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marília win
52.2% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio Branco SP home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marília away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marília to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 18% / 30% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Rio Branco SP and 1.25 for Marília, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.7%
- 0–015.7%
- 0–212.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.4%
Recent form
Rio Branco SP
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandeirante SP · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs USAC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapirense · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-03-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Marília · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EC São Bernardo · 0-4 (L)
Marília
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Prudente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Linense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bandeirante SP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandeirante SP · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - A3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portuguesa Santista | 15 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Marília | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Rio Preto | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | XV de Jau | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 27 |
| 5 | Rio Claro | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| 6 | Uniao Barbarense | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| 7 | EC São Bernardo | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Paulista | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 9 | União São João | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 10 | Catanduva | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| 11 | Bandeirante SP | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | Rio Branco SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 16 |
| 13 | Francana | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Itapirense | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | Desportivo Brasil | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 | USAC | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -18 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marília win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.