· Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Rio de Janeiro vs Macaé Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Rio de Janeiro and 1.68 for Macaé, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Macaé the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio de Janeiro home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Macaé away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Macaé to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Rio de Janeiro and 1.68 for Macaé, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Rio de Janeiro
- 2026-08-31T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Búzios · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barra Mansa · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-11-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs 7 de Abril · 2-6 (L)
- 2025-11-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Serra Macaense · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SE Belford Roxo · 0-4 (L)
Macaé
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Carapebus · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Artsul · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Campo Grande · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Audax Rio · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca B2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friburguense | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | Serra Macaense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardoso Moreira | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | SE Belford Roxo | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 5 | Santa Cruz RJ | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Paduano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Rio de Janeiro | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | 7 de Abril | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Campos AA | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Búzios | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 12 | Paraty | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.