· Analysis updated 00:39 UTC
Rio Preto vs Desportivo Brasil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Rio Preto and 0.50 for Desportivo Brasil, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Rio Preto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rio Preto win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio Preto home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Desportivo Brasil away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–021.6%
- 0–016.9%
- 2–013.8%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–18.5%
Recent form
Rio Preto
- 2026-04-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa Santista · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa Santista · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniao Barbarense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-28T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uniao Barbarense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Itapirense · 1-0 (W)
Desportivo Brasil
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs XV de Jau · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Preto · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-11T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Catanduva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniao Barbarense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapirense · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-14T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Preto 4-0 Desportivo Brasil (Paulista - A3)
- 2025-01-23T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Preto 1-0 Desportivo Brasil (Paulista - A3)
- 2024-01-31T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Preto 0-1 Desportivo Brasil (Paulista - A3)
- 2023-03-01T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Preto 1-0 Desportivo Brasil (Paulista - A3)
- 2022-03-12T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Preto 2-2 Desportivo Brasil (Paulista - A3)
- 2021-05-08T01:00:00.000Z · Rio Preto 0-1 Desportivo Brasil (Paulista - A3)
- 2020-03-07T19:00:00.000Z · Rio Preto 1-0 Desportivo Brasil (Paulista - A3)
Paulista - A3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portuguesa Santista | 15 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Marília | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Rio Preto | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | XV de Jau | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 27 |
| 5 | Rio Claro | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| 6 | Uniao Barbarense | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| 7 | EC São Bernardo | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Paulista | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 9 | União São João | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 10 | Catanduva | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| 11 | Bandeirante SP | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | Rio Branco SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 16 |
| 13 | Francana | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Itapirense | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | Desportivo Brasil | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 | USAC | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -18 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rio Preto win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.