· Analysis updated 19:50 UTC
Rio Verde vs Morrinhos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Rio Verde and 1.05 for Morrinhos, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Rio Verde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rio Verde win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio Verde home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Morrinhos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rio Verde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Rio Verde and 1.05 for Morrinhos, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Rio Verde
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Crixás EC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tupy FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Anápolis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bom Jesus EC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Goianésia · 1-1 (D)
Morrinhos
- 2026-10-02T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineiros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Crixás EC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Goiânia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Verde · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Trindade · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Goiano - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Goianésia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 3 | Bom Jesus EC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 31 |
| 4 | Mineiros | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 5 | Morrinhos | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 23 |
| 6 | Goiânia | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Tupy FC | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Crixás EC | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -10 | 16 |
| 9 | Grêmio Anápolis | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 | Trindade | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -13 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rio Verde win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.