River Ebro vs Berceo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for River Ebro and 3.04 for Berceo, a combined total of 4.17. That distribution gives Berceo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Berceo win

75.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.12 – 3.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

River Ebro home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Berceo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Berceo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 11% / 14% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for River Ebro and 3.04 for Berceo, a combined 4.17 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

River Ebro win11%

Draw14%

Berceo win76%

Double chance 1X

24%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

89%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–38.2%
1–28.1%
0–37.3%
0–27.2%
1–46.2%

Recent form

River Ebro

2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pradejón · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcial · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cenicero · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Yagüe · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 0-7 (L)

Berceo

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cenicero · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs River Ebro · 7-0 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Yagüe · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Autol · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Yagüe · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Berceo	6	5	0	1	13	15
2	Alfaro	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Calahorra	6	4	0	2	11	12
5	La Calzada	6	4	0	2	1	12
6	Pradejón	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Varea	6	2	4	0	2	10
8	San Marcial	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Anguiano	6	2	2	2	2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Yagüe	6	2	0	4	-6	6
13	Cenicero	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Comillas	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calasancio	6	1	2	3	-9	5
16	Vianés	6	1	1	4	-1	4
17	River Ebro	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	1	0	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Berceo win, at 75.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.