River Ebro vs Vianés Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for River Ebro and 1.89 for Vianés, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Vianés the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vianés win

47.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.89

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

River Ebro home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vianés to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 30% / 22% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for River Ebro and 1.89 for Vianés, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

River Ebro win30%

Draw22%

Vianés win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.7%
1–29.2%
2–17.1%
2–26.7%
0–16.6%

Recent form

River Ebro

2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pradejón · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcial · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cenicero · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Yagüe · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 0-7 (L)

Vianés

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Berceo	6	5	0	1	13	15
2	Alfaro	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Calahorra	6	4	0	2	11	12
5	La Calzada	6	4	0	2	1	12
6	Pradejón	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Varea	6	2	4	0	2	10
8	San Marcial	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Anguiano	6	2	2	2	2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Yagüe	6	2	0	4	-6	6
13	Cenicero	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Comillas	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calasancio	6	1	2	3	-9	5
16	Vianés	6	1	1	4	-1	4
17	River Ebro	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	1	0	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vianés win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.