Egao Kenko Stadium · Analysis updated 00:39 UTC
Roasso Kumamoto vs Oita Trinita Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Roasso Kumamoto and 0.99 for Oita Trinita, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Roasso Kumamoto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Roasso Kumamoto home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Oita Trinita away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–011.7%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Roasso Kumamoto
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-3 (L)
Oita Trinita
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Consadole Sapporo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Omiya Ardija · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-29T05:00:00.000Z · Roasso Kumamoto 1-0 Oita Trinita (J2/J3 League)
- 2026-03-01T04:05:00.000Z · Roasso Kumamoto 3-1 Oita Trinita (J2/J3 League)
- 2025-10-26T05:00:00.000Z · Roasso Kumamoto 0-1 Oita Trinita (J2 League)
- 2025-05-03T05:00:00.000Z · Roasso Kumamoto 0-1 Oita Trinita (J2 League)
- 2024-08-11T10:00:00.000Z · Roasso Kumamoto 1-2 Oita Trinita (J2 League)
- 2024-05-13T04:00:00.000Z · Roasso Kumamoto 3-1 Oita Trinita (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-28T04:00:00.000Z · Roasso Kumamoto 1-2 Oita Trinita (J2 League)
- 2023-07-16T10:00:00.000Z · Roasso Kumamoto 1-3 Oita Trinita (J2 League)
- 2023-05-13T06:00:00.000Z · Roasso Kumamoto 1-1 Oita Trinita (J2 League)
- 2022-10-30T04:05:00.000Z · Roasso Kumamoto 2-2 Oita Trinita (J2 League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.