Robina Common · Analysis updated 02:56 UTC
Robina City vs Logan Lightning Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Robina City and 1.34 for Logan Lightning, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Robina City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.
Model pick
Robina City to Win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 3–16.4%
Why the model likes this
Robina City home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Robina City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Robina City and 1.34 for Logan Lightning, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 64%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Robina City
- 2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · A vs Capalaba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · A vs North Star · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Holland Park Hawks · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-07-19T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Redlands United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-11T06:30:00.000Z · A vs St George Willawong · 2-0 (W)
Logan Lightning
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Queensland Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 21 |
| 11 | St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -39 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | -36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.