· Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
Robres vs La Almunia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Robres and 1.87 for La Almunia, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives La Almunia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
La Almunia win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Robres home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
La Almunia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Almunia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 30% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Robres and 1.87 for La Almunia, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Robres
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Épila · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Binéfar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Zaragoza II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Monzón · 3-4 (L)
La Almunia
- 2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Robres · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Épila · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Belchite 97 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Andorra CF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrillas · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Ejea | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Brea | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fraga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Cuarte | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Épila | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlético Monzón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Caspe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Almudévar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Binéfar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Huesca II | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | La Almunia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Illueca | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | CDJ Tamarite | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | CD Sietamo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Andorra CF | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Belchite 97 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Robres | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is La Almunia win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.