· Analysis updated 06:04 UTC
Rochefort vs Onhaye Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Rochefort and 0.97 for Onhaye, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Rochefort the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rochefort win
74.9% probability
Expected goals
2.78 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rochefort home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Onhaye away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rochefort to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.78 goals for Rochefort and 0.97 for Onhaye, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–08.4%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Rochefort
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs K. Lierse S.K. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Charleroi II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Onhaye · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubize · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Habay-la-Neuve · 4-2 (W)
Onhaye
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liège II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Charleroi II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Meux · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albert Quévy-Mons · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochefort · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2022-05-01T13:00:00.000Z · Rochefort 1-2 Onhaye (Third Amateur Division - ACFF B)
- 2021-11-06T19:00:00.000Z · Rochefort 1-5 Onhaye (Third Amateur Division - ACFF B)
- 2020-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · Rochefort 0-4 Onhaye (Third Amateur Division - ACFF B)
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meux | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | RWDM | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | Rochefort | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Tubize | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rochefort win, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.