· Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Roda vs Alemannia Aachen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Roda and 2.63 for Alemannia Aachen, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Alemannia Aachen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alemannia Aachen win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Roda home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alemannia Aachen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alemannia Aachen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 21% / 18% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Roda and 2.63 for Alemannia Aachen, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–37.3%
- 1–16.4%
- 2–26.3%
- 0–25.6%
Recent form
Roda
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Waalwijk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong Ajax · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs MVV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 2-2 (D)
Alemannia Aachen
- 2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Eupen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger Kickers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jahn Regensburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alemannia Aachen win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.