· Analysis updated 17:46 UTC
Roda vs Crevillente Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Roda and 1.14 for Crevillente, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Roda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Roda win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Roda home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crevillente away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Roda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Roda and 1.14 for Crevillente, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–18.0%
Recent form
Roda
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crevillente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal III · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ontinyent 1931 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Crevillente · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Soneja · 0-1 (L)
Crevillente
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal III · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ontinyent 1931 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saguntino · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Roda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Soneja · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Levante II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 3 | Vall de Uxó | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Torrent | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Eldense B | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Roda | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Crevillente | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Acero | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Saguntino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | SC Torrevieja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Ontinyent 1931 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Jove Español | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Atzeneta | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Buñol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Torrellano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Soneja | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Utiel | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Roda win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.