Parkstad Limburg Stadion · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Roda vs Jong AZ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Roda and 1.80 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Roda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Roda home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jong AZ away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Roda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Roda and 1.80 for Jong AZ, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.6%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.0%
Recent form
Roda
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Waalwijk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong Ajax · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs MVV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 2-2 (D)
Jong AZ
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong PSV U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heracles · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dordrecht · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong Utrecht · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.