Rodez vs Grenoble Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Rodez and 1.65 for Grenoble, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Rodez the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rodez win

53.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.35 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rodez home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grenoble away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Rodez win53%

Draw20%

Grenoble win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

2–18.3%
1–17.1%
2–26.9%
3–16.5%
1–25.9%

Recent form

Rodez

2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nancy · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grenoble · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 1-4 (L)

Grenoble

2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodez · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Annecy · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Laval · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · Rodez 0-1 Grenoble (Ligue 2)
2026-03-06T19:00:00.000Z · Rodez 1-0 Grenoble (Ligue 2)
2025-11-07T19:00:00.000Z · Rodez 1-2 Grenoble (Ligue 2)
2025-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · Rodez 0-1 Grenoble (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-01-31T19:00:00.000Z · Rodez 1-2 Grenoble (Ligue 2)
2024-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · Rodez 2-1 Grenoble (Ligue 2)
2024-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · Rodez 0-0 Grenoble (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-03-16T18:00:00.000Z · Rodez 3-1 Grenoble (Ligue 2)
2023-11-25T18:00:00.000Z · Rodez 1-2 Grenoble (Ligue 2)
2023-07-29T14:00:00.000Z · Rodez 2-0 Grenoble (Friendlies Clubs)

Ligue 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Saint Etienne	8	6	1	1	13	19
2	RED Star FC 93	8	5	2	1	3	17
3	Montpellier	8	4	3	1	3	15
4	Reims	8	3	5	0	6	14
5	Nancy	8	4	1	3	2	13
6	Annecy	8	4	1	3	1	13
7	PAU	8	3	2	3	1	11
8	Sochaux	8	2	5	1	-1	11
9	Metz	7	2	4	1	3	10
10	Dijon	7	2	3	2	0	9
11	Guingamp	8	2	2	4	-3	8
12	Dunkerque	8	2	2	4	-3	8
13	Nantes	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Grenoble	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Rodez	8	2	1	5	-4	7
16	Boulogne	8	0	6	2	-2	6
17	Clermont Foot	8	0	6	2	-3	6
18	Laval	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rodez win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.