Stade Paul Lignon · Referee Gael Angoula, France · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Rodez vs Nancy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Rodez and 1.08 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Rodez the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rodez home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nancy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–111.4%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 54.5% vs market 44.3%, edge +10.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 54.5% | 1.83 | +10.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 59.5% | 62.1% | 1.61 | +2.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 32.9% | 33.4% | 2.99 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.8% | 28.7% | 3.48 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.40 | 38.4% | 37.9% | 2.64 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.8% | 71.3% | 1.40 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.7% | 66.6% | 1.50 | -2.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 45.5% | 2.20 | -10.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rodez
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nancy · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grenoble · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 1-4 (L)
Nancy
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodez · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Reims · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Nantes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunkerque · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · Rodez 3-4 Nancy (Ligue 2)
- 2026-01-23T19:00:00.000Z · Rodez 3-1 Nancy (Ligue 2)
- 2025-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · Rodez 0-0 Nancy (Ligue 2)
- 2022-04-19T18:00:00.000Z · Rodez 1-1 Nancy (Ligue 2)
- 2021-11-20T18:00:00.000Z · Rodez 2-0 Nancy (Ligue 2)
- 2021-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · Rodez 1-1 Nancy (Ligue 2)
- 2021-01-08T19:00:00.000Z · Rodez 2-2 Nancy (Ligue 2)
- 2020-02-07T19:00:00.000Z · Rodez 1-1 Nancy (Ligue 2)
- 2019-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · Rodez 1-1 Nancy (Ligue 2)
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | RED Star FC 93 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Reims | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Nancy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Annecy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | PAU | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Sochaux | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Metz | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Dijon | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Dunkerque | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Nantes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Grenoble | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Rodez | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Boulogne | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Laval | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.