Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina · Analysis updated 18:50 UTC
Rodina Moskva II vs Volgar Astrakhan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Rodina Moskva II and 1.15 for Volgar Astrakhan, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Rodina Moskva II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rodina Moskva II win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rodina Moskva II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rodina Moskva II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Rodina Moskva II and 1.15 for Volgar Astrakhan, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Rodina Moskva II
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Novosibirsk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashuk-KMV · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Kirov · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sokol Saratov · 4-0 (W)
Volgar Astrakhan
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sokol Saratov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaluga · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Gold table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Kirov | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 30 |
| 3 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 20 |
| 5 | Dinamo Bryansk | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 19 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Mashuk-KMV | 15 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 15 | 1 | 11 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rodina Moskva II win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.