Rodina Moskva III vs Arsenal Tula II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Rodina Moskva III and 1.00 for Arsenal Tula II, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Rodina Moskva III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rodina Moskva III win

56.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rodina Moskva III home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal Tula II away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rodina Moskva III to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Rodina Moskva III and 1.00 for Arsenal Tula II, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rodina Moskva III win56%

Draw23%

Arsenal Tula II win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–010.9%
1–110.9%
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
0–06.1%

Recent form

Rodina Moskva III

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Strogino · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SKA Khabarovsk II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shumbrat · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Spartak Tambov · 0-1 (L)

Arsenal Tula II

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Orel · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva III · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit Penza · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	18	2	2	34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	17	2	3	25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	12	4	6	11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	12	4	6	10	40
5	Ryazan	21	11	7	3	22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	12	3	7	16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	11	5	6	14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	8	6	8	-1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	8	4	10	3	28
10	Strogino	22	7	4	11	-10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	7	3	12	-8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	7	2	12	-16	23
13	Orel	22	6	5	11	-13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	4	2	16	-20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	2	8	12	-25	14
16	Kvant	22	1	3	18	-42	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rodina Moskva III win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.