Arena Khimki · Referee Stanislav Matveev, Russia · Analysis updated 14:04 UTC
Rodina Moskva vs Akron Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Rodina Moskva and 1.66 for Akron, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Akron the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rodina Moskva home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Akron away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Akron to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Rodina Moskva and 1.66 for Akron, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
Rodina Moskva
- 2026-10-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)
Akron
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moscow · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Krasnodar | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Baltika | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 9 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | Rubin | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Krylia Sovetov | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Akhmat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Akron | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Fakel | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.