Arena Khimki · Analysis updated 06:57 UTC
Rodina Moskva vs FC Krasnodar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Rodina Moskva and 2.01 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives FC Krasnodar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Krasnodar win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rodina Moskva home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Krasnodar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Krasnodar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 21% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Rodina Moskva and 2.01 for FC Krasnodar, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 0–29.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–36.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 4.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.51 | 60.7% | 62.7% | 1.59 | +2.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 77.0% | 78.7% | 1.27 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 1.66 | 57.9% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +1.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.21 | 41.8% | 42.8% | 2.34 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 5.00 | 19.2% | 19.8% | 5.05 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.38 | 40.1% | 40.4% | 2.48 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.59 | 59.9% | 59.6% | 1.68 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.19 | 80.9% | 80.2% | 1.25 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.29 | 42.0% | 41.1% | 2.43 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.59 | 58.2% | 57.2% | 1.75 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 22.9% | 21.3% | 4.69 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.33 | 39.3% | 37.3% | 2.68 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rodina Moskva
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Orenburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 2-3 (L)
FC Krasnodar
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Baltika · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Zenit · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2024-02-03T13:00:00.000Z · Rodina Moskva 0-3 FC Krasnodar (Friendlies Clubs)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
| 2 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 23 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Rostov | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Krasnodar win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.