Arena Khimki · Referee V. Moskalev · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Rodina Moskva vs Rubin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Rodina Moskva and 1.56 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Rubin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rodina Moskva home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Rubin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rubin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Rodina Moskva and 1.56 for Rubin, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
Rodina Moskva
- 2026-10-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)
Rubin
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.