Rodina Moskva vs Rubin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rodina Moskva and 2.25 for Rubin, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Rubin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rubin win

58.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rodina Moskva home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rubin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rubin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 22% / 20% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Rodina Moskva and 2.25 for Rubin, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rodina Moskva win22%

Draw20%

Rubin win58%

Double chance 1X

42%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–29.4%
1–18.4%
0–27.1%
1–37.0%
0–16.3%

Recent form

Rodina Moskva

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 0-2 (L)

Rubin

2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dynamo	10	7	1	2	7	22
2	CSKA Moscow	10	6	4	0	9	22
3	Zenit	10	7	0	3	11	21
4	FC Krasnodar	10	6	3	1	6	21
5	Spartak Moscow	10	6	2	2	9	20
6	Rubin	10	2	6	2	0	12
7	FC Orenburg	10	2	6	2	1	12
8	Baltika	10	3	3	4	2	12
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	10	4	0	6	-5	12
10	Krylia Sovetov	10	2	6	2	-1	12
11	Akhmat	10	2	5	3	0	11
12	FC Rostov	10	3	2	5	-6	11
13	Lokomotiv	10	2	4	4	2	10
14	Akron	10	1	5	4	-8	8
15	Rodina Moskva	10	1	2	7	-15	5
16	Fakel	10	0	3	7	-12	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rubin win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.